Models have been suggesting for the better part of a week that we may have a tropical system form in the western Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday of next week. We are closely watching the western Caribbean as showers and storms are growing more numerous today. This is an area that we normally watch this time of year for development.
The thinking is that a weak system will form near the Yucatan late this weekend into next week. Most models take the system to the NW into the southern Gulf of Mexico by Monday night. It is here that it may strengthen enough to become a tropical depression or even a storm.
Bret is the next name on the list.
The latest model runs take the system to the northwest landing somewhere near Brownsville, TX or just south of there in Mexico by the end of next week. It appears at this time that it would be a very weak system, but we will have to track it closely to be sure.
As for its affects on our area, the most we may see would be enhanced rainfall Monday through Wednesday next week. This though is where two of the main forecast models differ. The GFS model tends to have a less organized system moving a little further into the central Gulf before moving west-nortwestward. This scenario brings us higher rain chances along with the chance for some minor flooding.
The European model takes a slightly more organized system across the Bay of Campeche headed toward Mexico. This model does not bring as deep of moisture to Florida as the GFS model does. We will still have southeast winds that give us the afternoon storms, but the coverage and the amounts of rain would be less for us. Neither scenarios brings highs winds in our direction.
Stay tuned to 10News for the latest on this potential weather system. At this point it’s nothing for us to worry about, but we’ll keep a close eye on it just in case.