ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. -- Some slow development is possible with an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean, proving once more hurricane season isn't as short as we want it to be.

Forecasters typically look to the Caribbean off Central America as the most likely area of development for the month of October and sure enough, we have a spot. There is a 50 percent chance of a tropical cyclone formation in the next five days near the coast, according to the National Hurricane Center.

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The bulk of October’s tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin originates in the Caribbean and when storms do develop, the prevailing path includes Florida’s west coast.

There are more negative factors than favorable in the short term toward development, and two global forecast models -- including the American GFS and European -- aren't optimistic about significant strengthening.

Once this area of low pressure moves away from land, however, it'll bear a close watch with sea surface temperatures in the low to mid-80s and little in the way of shear to tear the system apart.

Southern and southwest Florida will have increased moisture and in turn, rainfall chances, into the weekend as the system makes it approach into the weekend.

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