The NWS in Ruskin, FL has issued a Flood Watch for Hernando, Citrus, Sumter and Levy counties from today through Tuesday evening. A slow moving frontal boundary will fall apart across north Florida over the next several days. That will combine with upper level energy to produce widely scattered showers and storms across the area. Rain chances are highest in the watch area, but the immediate Tampa area will also see a very good chance for rain each day. The frontal boundary is sinking southward so we will have to watch for heavier rains moving southward into the Tampa area by late Tuesday into Wednesday.
The tropics are heating up with three systems to watch. 95L is in the western Gulf of Mexico and currently has a 20% chance of development. Recon is flying out to investigate this system today, but it appears now that most of the effects of this system will be felt along the Texas and Mexican coast. Moisture from this will stream NE producing heavy rains for many on the central Gulf coast.
94L is a big concern as some long range models bring it close to the Tampa area by the end of this upcoming weekend. There is currently and 80% chance for development so this needs to be tracked closely.
96L is behind 94L and has just come off the African coast. This too is being picked up but the models and could be north of Puerto Rico by ext week.
We will be tracking all of these systems closely.
Today: Partly cloudy skies will fill with clouds and showers late today. Winds SW 10 mph with highs near 90.
Tonight: Showers and storms before midnight, then drying gout. Winds will be light with lows in the mid to upper 70s.
Tuesday: A 70% chance for showers and storms, winds SW 10 mph and highs in the upper 80s.
Meteorologist Bobby Deskins