Powerful system organizing in Gulf of Mexico

Partly sunny to at times mostly cloudy skies today with a 10% chance of a sprinkle or shower.  High around 80.

Marine Forecast...

Winds from the ENE 6 - 12 with 2 to 3 foot seas and a light chop on the bay. 

Conditions on the water will quickly deteriorate tonight and Wednesday as the wind field strengthens into our area of low pressure.  SE winds into early Wednesday 10 - 20 knots become SSW for the afternoon around 20 - 30 knots with higher gusts on the water.  Seas build 4 to 6 feet tonight then 7 to 11 feet Wednesday with rough conditions on the bay.  In addition, heavy squalls with high winds and lightning are likely later in the day Wednesday.

A Coastal Flood Watch is in effect from Pinellas and Hillsborough Counties all the way up to Levy County where high tide cycles will run about 2 to 4 feet above normal with the strong push of winds into western Florida.

Wednesday's Forecast...

Everything still looks on track for a warm, windy and humid day Wednesday with strong to possibly severe storms rolling in by late afternoon and through the evening.

Wind shear will be impressive across the viewing area to support heavy storms.  The big variable is just how unstable the atmosphere will be... Ideally with such a strong wind field in place, I'd like see lower instability as high wind shear and high instability can lead to an outbreak of severe weather.  That said, we'll still run a risk for damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado as this cold front pushes across.

I'll be posting updates on Facebook and Twitter... here are links to both.

http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#/chris.suchan?ref=profile

http://twitter.com/csuchanweather

Track the storms over the next few days with Forecast First - you can watch Florida Radar and Tampa Bay Radar.  You can chat live online with our meteorologists, and get all of the latest Tampa Bay weather forecasts.

Meteorologist Chris Suchan