CBS NEWS
(MoneyWatch) -- Stocks flirted with a new all-time high Thursday, as the S&P 500 closed just shy of its record.
The
S&P 500 gained 9 points to close at 1,563.23, up 0.6 percent, just
missing its previous high of 1,565 on Oct. 9, 2007. The Dow Jones
industrial average has closed above its previous high, also reached on
that same date more than five years ago, for eight straight days. It has
risen for 10 days in a row, its longest winning streak since 1996. It
added 84 points on the day to end at 14,539.
The Nasdaq closed at 3,259, up 14 points.
While
the Dow follows the stocks of 30 "blue-chip" companies, as a much
broader index the S&P 500 is regarded by many to be a better gauge
of investor sentiment. It may not be done rising.
"Our
expectation that the U.S. S&P 500 would climb as high as 1,550 by
mid-year may now look too cautious," analysts with research firm Capital
Economics wrote in a report. "After all, the index has already nudged
above that level this month and is showing little sign of fatigue.
Implied volatility is also at a six-year low, suggesting few envisage a
major setback around the corner."
Stocks were buoyed today by the Labor Department's latest jobless claims report,
which showed that fewer Americans filed for unemployment benefits last
week. Applications for aid fell to 332,000, while the four-week average
shrank to 347,000, the lowest level since March 2008.
Other
factors also have helped push stocks up in recent weeks. These include
healthy personal consumption and retail sales; an ongoing rebound in the
housing market; strong corporate earnings; falling oil prices; and
expectations by investors that the Federal Reserve will continue to put
downward pressure on interest rates well into 2014.
Those trends have coincided with a period of relative calm in the
eurozone, as European leaders meet this week in Brussels to discuss the
region's economy and other matters. Fears that China, another engine of
global economic growth, could suffer a sudden economic downturn also
have abated. For now, that is keeping investors feeling bullish.
"Since
the start of the year, institutional investors seem to have stopped
reacting to headline risk as quickly and intensely as they did since the
start of the bull market," said Ed Yardeni, president and chief
investment strategist for institutional investor advisory Yardeni
Research.
While stocks have continued their surge, experts
caution that financial markets are an unreliable measure of the broader
economy. Economists expect the U.S. economy to expand only modestly in
2013, with most estimates predicting growth of 1.5 percent to 2 percent.
Those estimates are down from earlier forecasts this year, as the
sequester -- mandated government spending cuts that took effect March 1
-- begin to slice into growth.
Stock gains also have only a
limited impact on most consumers' purchasing power because most shares
are concentrated in the hands of large investors and the wealthy.
Although personal income rose sharply in the last quarter of 2012, most
of that increase came from an acceleration in dividend payments and
interest income.