An Irish bookmaker is so convinced that Hillary Clinton will be the next president of the United States that it has already paid out more than $1 million to customers who placed bets on the Democratic candidate winning on Nov. 8.
Paddy Power says Clinton has an 85.7% — odds of 2/11 — chance of winning the election, a figure that it believes amounts to a "done deal." It says the chance of a victory for Republican candidate Donald Trump is 18.2% — odds of 9/2. The percentages added together exceed 100% because the numbers account for any profits accumulated by Paddy Power.
Paddy Power is listed on Britain's FTSE 100, its main stock index.
"Trump gave it a hell of a shot going from a rank outsider to the Republican candidate but the recent flood of revelations have halted his momentum and his chances now look as patchy as his tan," the bookmaker said in a statement.
"Recent betting trends have shown one way traffic for Hillary and punters seemed to have called it 100% correct. Despite Trump’s Make America Great Again message appealing to many disillusioned voters, it looks as though America (is) going to put a woman in the White House," it added.
Paddy Power said if it is wrong, and Trump wins, it will "trigger the biggest political payout in bookmaking history. It did not specify what the amount would be.
Lewis Davey, a representative from the firm, told USA TODAY in emailed comments that "we're in the business of making predictions and in this instance we've seen sufficient evidence to be confident enough to declare Hillary the winner ... If Trump wins we'll be paying a double payout and left with some seriously expensive egg on our faces."
Paddy Power has done this before: Two days before President Obama was re-elected in 2012 it paid out $700,000 to betters who had backed him.
National polling averages tracked by USA TODAY with 20 days to go before the election show support for Clinton on 46.3% and Trump on 39%.
Clinton and Trump will take part in the third and final presidential debate Wednesday night. USA TODAY has the following advice for the candidates: 5 things Clinton needs to do in the final debate; 5 things Trump needs to do in the final debate.