I can admit...sometimes I'm wrong.
More than two years ago, I sketched out the longterm blueprint the Rays would use to get a new stadium:
A tug-of-war - first between two local communities, then two communities separated by hundreds or thousands of miles. Blogs, petitions, editorials, and maybe even a full-page ad or two. Anger. Heartbreak.
These are all the things we in the Tampa Bay area have to look forward to in the next couple of years as the Rays lobby for a new state-of-the-art baseball stadium.
While many of the predictions have come true in the 28 months since I wrote the column, some may not thanks to a slight deviation in the blueprint.
As expected:
But with St. Petersburg Mayor Bill Foster assuming the role of foil in the saga, the single biggest "trick" in a stadium blueprint has yet to materialize:
- High-ranking team executives take a not-so-secret trip to a competing region to crank up the pressure on their existing home city.
As it turns out, I may be wrong to have assumed it would be necessary to pit one region against another. Why? The Rays have been so successful simply letting Tampa and St. Pete (and even Orlando) wage war on each other in the court of public opinion.
In 2008, the Rays were in a difficult spot. Their use agreement afforded the team zero leverage until its expiration in 2027.
But the more media outlets criticized Trop attendance, the more the St. Petersburg Times criticized Foster's leadership, and the more Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn suggests Tampa would be a better home for the Rays, the more leverage St. Pete loses to the Rays.
Also read: "A glimpse inside Foster's head" (June 2011)
So what happens next?
To Foster's credit, he has stood his ground despite the pressure, even penning an op-ed to the Times promising to put the interests of his constituents first. But Foster, ceding another small bit of leverage, suggests there may be a way out of the stalemate.
"We will also support the efforts of the private sector who are actively working on solutions at keeping the Rays as a regional asset...these efforts involve, but are not limited to, the Tampa Bay Partnership, the chambers of St. Petersburg and Tampa, the Clutch Hitters, and many other dedicated business professionals."
As first reported on WTSP.com, the Rays are showing a greater willingness to speak to these private groups than they are to Foster.
Additionally, with Buckhorn joining his colleague Foster in suggesting St. Pete needs to be "made whole financially," maybe Foster will use the private groups to negotiate a buyout with the Rays?
It's an unusual concept, but it would allow Foster to preserve his legal leverage in case the Rays try to break their contract. Maybe Foster isn't as stubborn and stupid as the St. Petersburg Times suggests.
But the problem for stadium supporters remains that finding a place for the Rays to play isn't nearly as difficult as finding the money to build a stadium.
The region is looking at a $600 million stadium nobody can afford. Buying out the contract in St. Pete would simply mean a $700 million stadium nobody can afford.
Even Mayor Buckhorn admitted Tampa doesn't have nearly enough money to build a stadium by itself. And there are no secret souces of funding out there for the Clutch Hitters and chambers of commerce to "study."
But stadium sympathizers hold out hope the area might one day go for a small multi-county tax, just as Minneapolis and Milwaukee did to get their stadiums.
If Buckhorn or Foster were to suggest it, however, the Tampa vs. St. Pete war would intensify - possibly to the point of no return. That's the other place the regional business groups can come in: they can suggest a tax without seeming nearly as partial to a specific location.
After the idea is leaked to the press, the groups will cautiously test the waters of public opinion. Would Pasco and Hillsborough residents be willing to add 0.1% to their sales tax for a new Gateway stadium? Would Pinellas residents be willing to pay 0.1% additional for a Tampa stadium?
It's a tough sell to say the least, but that's why it they will have to get state legislators involved (not this guy).
The painful posturing will continue for many more years. Editorials, letters to the editors, and political volleys will continue. And the Rays will continue to up the ante and pile on pressure.
But these steps are also part of the blueprint the Twins, White Sox, and Marlins (just to name a few) all followed to get their stadiums built. Public opinion ultimately drives the politicians, who ultimately control the pursestrings.
And when a stadium finally gets built in Tampa Bay - as I've been saying for 2.5 years now - the location will ultimately be determined not by ideals but by financials.
The owner of the Rays (whoever it is at the time) will likely contribute $150-200 million. Tourist taxes will likely contribute a similar amount. The remainder will probably come from other taxes of some sort, including - but not limited to - significant tax breaks for the team.
Politicians will catch heck for flip-flopping on their "no tax" pledges of 2010 and 2011, but the history books will remember them not for the painful process they had to go through, but for the new legacy stadium they leave behind when they exit office.
This blog represents the opinion of the writer, not of WTSP-TV or 10 News.
Connect with Noah Pransky on Facebook at www.facebook.com/noahpransky or Twitter at www.twitter.com/noahpransky. Or read his sports business blog, Shadow of the Stadium.