UPDATE: Erin is no longer a Tropical Storm
Tropics: 92L in the southern Gulf of Mexico is currently unorganized, but there are some signs that it may be trying to get it's act together. Models drift the center NNW toward the gulf coast between Texas and Louisiana over the next few days. The NHC still has a 50% chance for this system to become a tropical storm within the next 2 days and raises that chance to 60% days 3 & 4. The low level center has now come off of the Yucatan peninsula, is back out over warm water and may even be shifting a little north of the old center. Early morning visible satellite imagery seems to show an organizing storm even though most of the weather is on the NE side of the center.. This needs to be watched.
Rain fall will mainly be on the east side of the center for now. Fortunately for us, the heaviest rains will be to our west and affect the panhandle of Florida through Louisiana. If the storms strengthens, it should consolidate the rainfall closer to the center of the storm. Most models have this near the gulf coast by Sunday afternoon. Rainfall totals in the Bay area will be generally light, but if you get under one of the tropical downpours, a quick inch of rain is possible. Much heavier rains will affect the Gulf coast from Tallahassee to New Orleans. 3-6" of rain is possible there with locally higher amounts close to 1 foot! The track and intensity will determine exactly where the heaviest rain will fall.
Erin is no longer a Tropical storm. The system is over marginal water temperatures and the current forecast does not call for strengthening. It is still in the far eastern Atlantic and not a threat to Florida.
Meteorologist Bobby Deskins