National Hurricane Center: 30-percent chance of Caribbean tropical development

The National Hurricane Center is watching the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for a small chance of tropical development.

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. -- We're past the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, though there's a bit of an uptick in activity during the month of October.

And perhaps we're seeing the first sign: a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms has a 30-percent chance of tropical development later this week. This is located in the northwest Caribbean Sea and is forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico.

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Where does it go from here? Computer models suggest a system moving into the Gulf coast and it going as far east as the Florida panhandle -- the European model shows a farther east track compared to the GFS' westward track.

Photos: 30-percent chance of Caribbean tropical development

In terms of intensity, both models don't predict a strong tropical system. It might not even earn a name, which would be Nate.

The bulk of October’s tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin originates in the Caribbean and when storms do develop, the prevailing path includes Florida’s west coast.

Of course, 10Weather will keep an eye on what happens this week and all throughout the remainder of hurricane season.

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