Those people saying they will flee to Canada if Donald Trump (or Hillary Clinton) is elected president are probably lying.
Yes, Trump and Clinton are probably the most unpopular presidential tandem our two-party system has ever fielded, but according to Canadian government data, applications by Americans for permanent residency in Canada in 2015 were down 25% since 2011.
For the first three months of 2016, applications are up a bit over last year, but still on pace to be lower than 2014.
Here are the totals — and notice, our northern neighbors get fewer than 10,000 residency applications from the U.S. in any year. Americans have not been flocking North.
2016 (January-March): 1,724
For the start of the year, Americans are on pace to make just under 6,900 applications for permanent residence in Canada.
"I'll be very surprised if the needle moves at all on this thing at all," said David Cohen, an immigration lawyer in Montreal. Americans often threaten to move to Canada during election years, but "at the end of the day the numbers remain kind of the same. Americans move here for love and for work and for very few other reasons."
For the most part, Cohen said, Americans "are a people that have such a strong attachment to their country."
We admit that we had some fun with this last year, when social analytics firm Luminoso produced a study listing the top countries Twitter users said they would flee to if Trump were elected president.
But admit it, people. You're not going anywhere.