TAMPA, Fla — Super Bowl LV will feature two of the greatest quarterbacks playing today: Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady.
And, according to EA Sports’ NFL Madden 21’s Super Bowl prediction, the quarterback matchup will live up to the hype. The duo is predicted to put on a show, giving their teams a chance to win up until the final minutes of the game.
Madden's prediction?
The Kansas City Chiefs will win their second consecutive Super Bowl by a score of 37-27, despite the Buccaneers’ unprecedented home-field advantage. The game also predicts Mahomes will win his second Super Bowl MVP.
How will the game go down?
“Kansas City’s relentless attack ultimately proves to be too much for Tampa Bay, and Mahomes’ mobility is the standout factor, avoiding Tampa Bay’s pass rush late in the game to pull away for the victory,” a press release says.
Mahomes is predicted to throw for what would be an eyebrow-raising, jaw-dropping 422 yards and four touchdowns. He surpassed 400 passing yards twice in the regular season, throwing for 416 yards against the New York Jets in week 8 and for 462 yards in week 5 against, you guessed it, Tampa Bay. So, the prediction, although lofty, is achievable.
Brady, on the other hand, is projected to throw for 332 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. He averaged just over 289 passing yards per game in 2020, eclipsing 300 passing yards seven times. One of those 300+ passing yard performances was against Kansas City when he threw for 345 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions in the 27-24 week 5 loss.
Here’s a full, quarter-by-quarter breakdown of Madden NFL 21’s prediction:
- Q1: Tampa Bay scores first with a field goal from Ryan Succop, but Mahomes follows quickly with a 5-yard touchdown pass to running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
- Q2: The quarterback battle ignites as Mahomes and Brady go back and forth. Brady finds Chris Goodwin on a 24-yard touchdown pass and Succop hammers another field goal from 46 yards. Mahomes bounces back, going to his favorite wide receiver Tyreek Hill for another Chief’s touchdown, keeping the game within one point with Kansas City out front 14-13.
- Q3: Mahomes comes out hot in the second half with a 63-yard touchdown pass back to Hill, who, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, hits a top speed of 22 mph. However, Brady answers with a 17-yard touchdown pass to Mike Evans. Mahomes, resilient and determined to win, hits Travis Kelce for a Chiefs touchdown to end the quarter.
- Q4: With just one touchdown between the two teams, it all comes down to the game’s nail biting, final 15 minutes. The final quarter opens with Tampa Bay’s Rob Gronkowski, the G.O.A.T. tight end stepping up for his team with a touchdown. Mahomes responds by pushing his way into the endzone with a 12-yard run squarely putting the moment in Kansas City’s hands. To end the game, the Chiefs kick a final field goal before the clock runs out.
Is the simulation credible?
EA Sports' Madden video game franchise claims its predictions are considered “one of the most credible sources ahead of the game by NFL fans.” To the video game’s credit, it accurately predicted Kansas City’s win last year, also accurately predicting Patrick Mahomes’ Super Bowl MVP nod.
However, that snapped a two-year streak in which the game’s prediction did not come to fruition.
Madden 19 predicted a Los Angeles Rams win over the New England Patriots in Super LIII by a score of 30-27. In reality, the final of that game was nowhere near the prediction, with a 13-3 New England win.
Madden 18 predicted a Patriots win over the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LII by a score of 24-20, but the actual score was 41-33 with the Eagles coming out on top.
The last time Madden accurately predicted the Super Bowl winner, aside from last year, was Super Bowl LI when it predicted a Patriots win over the Atlanta Falcons 27-24. The actual score of that game, though, was 43-28.
In all, according to Sporting News, Madden’s computer vs. computer simulations have been right more times than not. Dating back to 2004, it has been accurate in predicting the winner 64 percent of the time, going 11 for 17.
What will actually happen?
You can find out on Sunday! Be sure to tune in locally to 10 Tampa Bay, with Super Bowl LV kicking off from Raymond James Stadium at 6:30 p.m.
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