Can it snow in Tampa? Yes.
Will it snow this year? Most likely not.
The last time we saw measurable snow in Tampa was in 1977 when we recorded nearly a ½ inch of the white stuff. We have seen flurries since then -- 1989 comes to mind -- but overall, snow here in central Florida is a rare occurrence.
It’s hard to have enough cold air here in central Florida for it to snow. You generally need sub-freezing temperatures from above to extend all of the way to the surface. While that is possible, it is tough to do at this latitude, and most importantly it is even harder to do when there is moisture in the area.
Sure, we can get cold, but cold air and moisture at the same time? Tough to do.
As we look toward this winter’s forecast, we have to look at El Nino, the warming of the equatorial waters west of South America, which shifts weather patterns around the globe. Here in Florida, that shift includes bringing the southern jet stream further south and over top of Florida.
That, in turn, allows cooler air to move south and the storm tracks to move right over us.
Typically, in an El Nino year, we expect cooler-than-average temperatures and more rainfall than average – plus a higher chance of severe weather.
Looking back to that ½ inch of snow in January of 1977, we see that we were in a weak El Nino phase. Seems to make sense, but the flurries we saw in 1989 came during a strong (but weakening) La Nina event. You can’t just forecast off of the Nino phase.
I have to say that I like it warm, but it would be exciting if it did snow here.
Scratch that, it would be exciting, but a traffic nightmare at the same time. This is Florida, we put salt on our drinks!
►Make it easy to keep up-to-date with more stories like this. Download the 10 News app now.
Have a news tip? Email tips@wtsp.com, visit our Facebook page or Twitter feed.
