TAMPA, Fla. — It could be another sign that real estate prices are peaking or at least plateauing in our area.
A brand-new survey from real estate company Redfin crunched recent data to see which housing markets could be most susceptible to a recession. And Tampa, it turns out, makes the Top 10.
“Absolutely, it’s starting to turn. Yes,” said Tampa real estate agent Cristan Fadal. “We are not at peak. We’ve gone past peak.”
Fadal knows the market and says it’s already happening —prices are stabilizing, and inventory is rebounding.
“I think sellers that were on the fence for a while, definitely they see that as prices come down, they don’t want to miss the boat,” he said.
Redfin identified Tampa as one of the most vulnerable real estate markets in the nation if our economy were to fall into a recession. The survey looked at 98 metro areas, measuring home-price volatility, debt-to-income ratios and home-price growth.
The higher the score, the better the chance of a downturn. Tampa was ranked 9th. Cape Coral was No. 3. North Port was No. 4. Miami was No. 25.
“But, even if we dropped out of what we had gained in the last year which was around 28% to 30%, we are still up. So, I don’t think it’s going to be all horror stories,” Fadal said.
“I mean it’s gonna go up, it’s gonna come down. But overall, Tampa is the place people want to come,” Fadal continued.
While a recession could create a price adjustment, most economists agreed we are not likely to see a housing market crash like the one we saw during the Great Recession about 15 years ago.
Homeownership rules are tighter. People have more equity so they’re less likely to be upside down on a loan. And unemployment is still low, so they expect there would be fewer foreclosures and bankruptcies.
The survey also named real estate markets where prices were predicted to remain the most stable in the event of an economic recession. Those were Montgomery County, Pennsylvania; Philadelphia and Akron, Ohio.