TAMPA, Fla. — Many are wondering when we will see the number of COVID-19 cases significantly drop. Well, it looks like we could be on the way.
USF Health Epidemiologist Doctor Edwin Michael has been forecasting a September drop, and so far, it seems the predictions are holding.
In mid-August, he anticipated a peak on Aug. 24, and for the most part, the cases have been going down since. He predicted more than 13,000 Floridians would be in the hospital on Labor Day. The forecast was off by just 67 patients compared to the number of patients reported by the Florida Hospital Association.
He shared this insight: while social behavior is hard to predict, the measures people have taken have prevented things from getting even worse.
“If you have no interventions at all - no vaccinations, no masks - this would be mind-blowing, even monstrous. So, we have contained this," Dr. Michael said.
"I think people miss that point. We’re looking at the cases, the waves, and thinking: 'Oh my God.'".
If you’re wondering what goes into making the forecasts, he admits there are many moving parts that could change the outcome.
Dr. Michael says they try to incorporate some reality into the forecasts by using Google search data. As people see the case numbers rise, they are more cautious, and they take fewer precautions like wearing masks and social distancing as the numbers go down.
He’s going to be watching for variants. The surge in cases has allowed the virus to keep experimenting.
“My only worry is the mutants,” Dr. Michael said.
As the virus circulates, it gives opportunity for the virus to mutate. Dr. Michael plans to have new forecasts later this week.