FLORIDA, USA — Starting May 1, Florida's 6-week abortion ban will take effect.
However, Florida voters will now have the opportunity to change how abortion is regulated in the state on Election Day.
On Monday, the state Supreme Court ruled Florida's 15-week abortion ban was constitutional, paving the way for the 6-week ban to take effect in 30 days.
In a separate ruling on Monday, the state Supreme Court approved a citizen-led ballot initiative to amend Florida's constitution. Now, this November, Florida voters will decide whether to protect abortion access up to "viability," which is typically considered 24 weeks.
10 Tampa Bay political analyst Lars Hafner outlines multiple ways the amendment could influence the 2024 election.
1. Voter turnout
"Absolutely, it's going to be a motivator," Hafner said, citing what we've seen happen in other states with similar ballot measures.
"We saw in Ohio, 52% of the supporters of the abortion amendment in Ohio were men. So this can actually energize men as well as women. And I think it goes across the board of all age groups. The older individuals who understand what Roe v Wade meant to the country, to those that are middle-aged and want to take care of their daughters and sons, per se. And then, of course, the the younger voter, wanting to have more rights and more control over their, their bodies."
2. The presidential race
That increased turnout, Hafner expects, will have an influence on the 2024 presidential race.
"Does it put Florida back in play and maybe create a purple state once again? Absolutely," Hafner said. "We see that like other states that have been red states, Kentucky, Ohio, Kansas, that the abortion amendment on the ballot has made a real difference. And what they did yesterday by putting it on the ballot here in Florida is put Florida back in play [for Democrats]."
3. The Florida U.S. Senate race
Hafner projects this abortion amendment will have an even more significant impact on Florida's U.S. Senate race, where Republican incumbent Rick Scott is being challenged by Democratic candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
"We know that Rick Scott has had close races in Florida every time he has been on the ballot," Hafner explained. "You can see the ad campaign already coming out that Rick Scott is against women's health care and women's choice to choose."
4. Increased political ad spending
Brace for seeing lots of political ads this election cycle in Florida.
Less than 24 hours after the state Supreme Court decision came down, the Biden campaign launched an ad in Florida attacking former President Trump on abortion.
Kate Scott Dawkins, the global president of business intelligence for GroupM, a media investment group said, "We have seen initiatives, not just candidates, draw big money."
Scott Dawkins said GroupM is projecting record-spending on political advertising nationally this election cycle.
"Every election cycle, it goes up quite substantially," she said. "So we are looking at between $15 and $17 billion for this year, depending on what you incorporate as political advertising."
It will take a 60% supermajority of voters for the amendment to pass. According to Florida statute, if it passes, "It shall be effective as an amendment to or revision of the constitution of the state on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in January following the election, or on such other date as may be specified in the amendment or revision."
You have until Oct. 7, 2024, to register to vote online, in person, or by mail.