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Latest poll shows Florida governor, US senate races too close to call

It's neck-and-neck among everyone involved: Nelson versus Scott and Gillum versus DeSantis.
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Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum and U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis

The contest between Democrat Andrew Gillum and Republican Ron DeSantis could come down to a photo-finish -- it's that close as far as new polling numbers are concerned.

So, too, is the race for U.S. Senate, with incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson holding a 1-point lead over Republican Gov. Rick Scott, according to the latest Mason-Dixon poll.

Nelson holds a lead at 47 percent while Scott is at 46 percent. In July, their positions were reversed, with Scott leading Nelson by 3 points.

Statewide, registered Florida voters were split at 42 percent of having a favorable or unfavorable view of Scott. Voters recognizing Nelson regards him favorably at 38 percent, just a tick above his unfavorable rating at 37 percent.

The latest poll-of-polls average compiled by RealClearPolitics shows Nelson just ahead of Scott at 1.8 percent, indicating a tight race for the past several weeks.

Credit: 10News
U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson and Florida Gov. Rick Scott

It's the race for governor that has been most dramatic in recent weeks. A recent Quinnipiac poll conducted in September showed Gillum running away with a 9-point lead over DeSantis. Other polls leading up to that massive gap also gave Gillum the edge, just at or above the margin of error.

The Mason-Dixon numbers bring Gillum back down to Earth, for now, with a 1-point lead at 45-to-44 percent, well within the 3.5 percent margin of error.

Digging deeper, voters had a favorable view of Gillum at 43 percent versus DeSantis at 39 percent. DeSantis had a higher unfavorable rating, but among the two men, more people didn't recognize Gillum's name.

If the race were held today, Tampa Bay voters would choose Gillum over DeSantis, but by just a point. DeSantis wins elsewhere across Florida, including north, central and southwest, with Gillum picking up the Miami metro area.

The RealClearPolitics polling average has Gillum up 3.7 points.

The Mason-Dixon polls included 815 registered Florida voters who said they were "likely to vote" in the November general election. They were taken from Sept. 24 through September 27 and had a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.5 percent.

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