TAMPA, Fla. — Despite a massive jump in home and rent prices in the Tampa Bay area, some experts believe the costs may start to plateau into 2023.
However, not enough to impact affordability.
"What we saw in Tampa over the course of 2022 was really, really exaggerated growth," Nicole Bachaud, Zillow senior economist, said.
Already, Zillow ranked Tampa at the top of the list for 2022's hottest housing market.
Tampa saw nearly 40% year-over-year price growth during the peak of its growth period in 2022, Bachaud said. Meanwhile, rents topped almost 30% annual growth.
During 2021, the area was still gaining momentum but its ability to offer the same outdoor amenities, like Miami or other hot markets at lower prices, only helped attract more residents, Bachaud said.
In its November report, Tampa rent fell 0.07% month-over-month to $2,108, according to Zillow. Still, the typical rent in the Tampa metro was up 8.5% from last year.
So what should we expect in 2023?
Bachaud said to expect prices to plateau and slow down as they've already been in recent months. Prices may still increase but are nowhere near the same amounts within the last two years.
But that doesn't mean home values and rent may resume back to pre-pandemic levels.
"That's not really going to impact affordability," Bachaud said. "We expect to see kind of the same movement in rent."
The demand for housing has repercussions for residents like Tiffany Carter of Tampa.
Carter said she's been unable to find a place even with the assistance of a Section 8 housing voucher. Right now, she and her son are relying on a friend for shelter.
“It feels like I’m on the street still but I’m thankful," Carter said.
The cost was too high for places she applied, or they were over capacity, she said.
After several extensions, her voucher expired, she said.
In Pinellas County, between 100-125 people with housing vouchers are currently still looking for a unit, county housing director Elisa Galvan said.
The demand amid increased prices has led to vouchers being expired for people who haven't had success getting a spot.
Galvan said in her career, she hasn't seen this many people with vouchers in need of a home. She's hoping more landlords will participate in the voucher programs.
Despite the market slowing down to some data, other housing experts like Dr. Ned Murray, a leading expert on economic and housing market issues at Florida International University, believe about a 10% increase can still be expected across the Tampa Bay and southwest Florida area.
Residents like Carter are hoping for any relief to provide for herself and her son.
"It’s hard for me to speak about this but I know that other people are experiencing the same thing," Carter said.
A spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development gave the following statement:
"HUD recognizes that rental markets have been extremely difficult over the past year, with vacancy rates falling to historic lows and rents rising sharply. One consequence of this volatility is that HUD’s “fair market rent” (FMR) estimates for 2022 did not keep pace with market rent changes in many communities.
"These conditions have clearly made it more difficult for families to use housing vouchers, and the number of rental units available to lease has shrunk for all families. In response, HUD granted housing authorities greater flexibility to increase payment standards above the standard range of 90 – 110% of the FMR.
"In addition, HUD modified its FMR methodology for 2023 to incorporate more up-to-date data from several private data sources, and this will likely result in FMRs more accurately reflecting market conditions across the country."