ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — Although the final track of Tropical Depression Fred is still unknown, it is looking more likely that the main threat we will receive here in the Tampa Bay area will be minor flooding from rainfall.
Fred is forecast to regenerate as a tropical cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico Saturday night or on Sunday, and bring a risk of tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida Panhandle beginning Monday.
While most of the winds will remain offshore, rain bands will be pushing through our area overnight Saturday into Sunday afternoon.
These rain bands will contain heavy downpours, some gusty winds and are also capable of producing a few tornadoes.
Rainfall totals through the weekend are expected to be in the 1-3 inch range along the immediate coast with much lower amounts further inland, especially east of Interstate 75.
Higher rain totals are likely at our southern coasts; a flood watch is in effect for Sarasota County.
Flooding is always a possibility with tropical systems as the rain can be heavy, but those rains will be falling on our area that is already saturated. Many locations have seen 5-10+ inches of rain over the last two weeks. Adding heavy rainfall from a tropical system to an already saturated ground means that rain will run off quickly causing flooding issues.
Winds won't be a major issue with Fred as it appears the highest chance for tropical-storm-force winds of 40+ mph will stay offshore. It will be breezy, though, with winds 25-35 mph and that could cause trees to fall due to the saturated ground.
This will lead to power outages.
If you live in an area that has poor drainage or tends to flood with heavy rains, be prepared for that to happen. If there is already standing water there, the likelihood of more flooding is high.
If you live along a river, those water levels tend to increase days after a large rainfall event. That means that local rivers could be rising through Tuesday of next week.