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What is July likely to bring during the 2020 hurricane season?

Historically, it’s slightly more active than June as tropical waters start to warm.
Credit: NOAA/NESDIS/STAR

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — One month down, five to go in what is forecast to be a very busy 2020 hurricane season. 

We’ve already had several records set with the first four tropical storms of the season. So looking at current conditions and our tropical cyclone history, what is July likely to bring?

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First, keep in mind that a quiet or even a busy June and July doesn't necessarily mean the rest of the hurricane season will follow suit.

About 8 percent of the Atlantic hurricane season's named storms from 1851 have occurred in July, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association's Hurricane Research Division. Of the 125 July tropical storms, 58 have been hurricanes and 26 have hit the United States. Eight of those storms made landfall in Texas while six hit Florida.

July hurricanes do happen, but they’re typically not major hurricanes. Only 3 percent of major hurricanes have occurred in July. On average, July brings a slight increase in tropical cyclone activity. August is the month that typically sees a sharp increase in tropical cyclone activity with a peak coming in September. 

According to the numbers researched by Phil Klotzbach, a research meteorologist at Colorado State University, you can see in the graphic below that nearly 20 percent of all storms still occur in October before the season really starts to wind down in November.

Credit: 10 Weather

If a tropical cyclone develops in July, it’s likely it will develop either in the Gulf of Mexico, off of the southeast United States coast and in the central tropical Atlantic.

RELATED: NOAA predicts 'busy' season with 3-6 major hurricanes

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